Comparing Iraqi Civilian Death Rates to U.S. Civilian Death Rates
31 May 2006.  Congressman Steven King, R-IA, claims to have demonstrated that in terms of the rate of violent deaths, Iraq is safer than some American cities.  Naturally, that claim is being ballyhooed by the Brain Trusters of freerepublic.com, newsmax.com, and Rush Limbaugh.  Sorry, folks.  False.  The polite word for Congressman King is "disingenuous." As I explain below, even if we take his remarks at face value, he's making an illegitimate comparison of apples and oranges.  The appropriate comparison is of Iraq's violent death rate not to that of American cities, but to that of American states.  I cannot check his estimate of 27.5 violent deaths in Iraq per 100,000 population, but it looks too low to be correct.  The median for U.S. states is double that figure, 57.7.
Ordinarily, one must adjust for the age and sex distribution of the respective population bases to make a valid comparison.  However, I am willing to assume that with respect to violent death (as opposed to disease and other natural causes), old people are not dramatically more or less vulnerable.  I have not found a source for Congressman King's data, or for his definition of "violent" death, so I use the apparently-standard sum of deaths by accident, suicide and homicide.
I obtained the information collected below from the U.S. CDC's web site (link given below the table), and calculated the "violent deaths" statistic by simple addition.  2003 was the latest year compiled. Five states had incomplete information and were omitted.  For the remaining 45 states, plus D.C., the median violent death rate in 2003 was 57.7, and if we discard an outlier on each end, the range is [35.6, 82.1].  It is immediately apparent that Congressman King cherry-picked cities with high homicide rates to make his case -- see the two-digit homicide rates in DC, LA, and MD, corresponding to Washington, New Orleans and Baltimore.
It is also easy to see one of Congressman King's motivations for comparing to cities rather than states.  The states are sorted by overall violent death rate, in descending order.  With the exceptions of DC, WV and OK, all of the 21 states with the highest violent death rates are located in either the old Southern Confederacy or the Rocky Mountain West.  Only three states from those areas, VA, UT and TX, escape this distinction.  Except for NM and DC, all are among the reddest of red states (as determined by the 2000 election).  (NM's tragedy is accidental deaths, I believe mostly due to severe alcoholism on the many Indian reservations there. I have flagged FL, PA and OH as "purple," to emphasize their important swing-state roles in 2000, 2004 and 2008.)
Let's say it again, in the middle of the page and quotated:
"You are far more likely to die a violent death in a Red state than in a Blue state."
2003 mortality data, U.S.	All causes			Violent Deaths (sum of accidents, suicide, homicide)			Accidents		Intentional self-harm (suicide)		Assault (homicide)
Area	Number	Rate*		Number	Rate*	% of all deaths	Number	Rate*	Number	Rate*	Number	Rate*
United States	2,448,288	841.9		158,493	54.5	6.47%	109,277	37.6	31,484	10.8	17,732	6.1
New Mexico	14,805	789.8		1,734	92.5	11.71%	1,227	65.5	343	18.3	164	8.7
District of Columbia	5,573	987.5		463	82.1	8.31%	233	41.3	36	6.4	194	34.4
Montana	8,467	922.7		735	80.1	8.68%	518	56.5	180	19.6	37	4.0
Mississippi	28,489	988.8		2,296	79.8	8.06%	1,656	57.5	336	11.7	304	10.6
Alaska	3,180	490.1		492	75.8	15.47%	321	49.5	124	19.1	47	7.2
West Virginia	21,306	1,176.9		1,359	75.1	6.38%	1,004	55.5	266	14.7	89	4.9
Kentucky	40,241	977.2		3,030	73.6	7.53%	2,270	55.1	567	13.8	193	4.7
Louisiana	42,719	950.1		3,271	72.8	7.66%	2,208	49.1	461	10.3	602	13.4
Arizona	43,392	777.5		4,035	72.3	9.30%	2,697	48.3	840	15.1	498	8.9
Tennessee	57,313	981.1		4,204	71.9	7.34%	3,004	51.4	762	13.0	438	7.5
Oklahoma	35,721	1,017.2		2,448	69.8	6.85%	1,748	49.8	476	13.6	224	6.4
Alabama	46,716	1,038.0		3,134	69.6	6.71%	2,179	48.4	521	11.6	434	9.6
Arkansas	27,918	1,024.2		1,873	68.7	6.71%	1,304	47.8	374	13.7	195	7.2
Nevada	17,858	796.8		1,528	68.2	8.56%	911	40.6	434	19.4	183	8.2
Missouri	55,582	974.4		3,788	66.4	6.82%	2,786	48.8	679	11.9	323	5.7
South Carolina	38,112	919.0		2,742	66.1	7.19%	1,941	46.8	476	11.5	325	7.8
Florida	168,657	991.0		11,220	65.9	6.65%	7,919	46.5	2,297	13.5	1,004	5.9
North Carolina	73,459	873.8		5,388	64.1	7.33%	3,835	45.6	955	11.4	598	7.1
Idaho	10,380	759.7		855	62.6	8.24%	605	44.3	217	15.9	33	2.4
Georgia	66,478	765.5		5,236	60.3	7.88%	3,528	40.6	972	11.2	736	8.5
Colorado	29,506	648.4		2,726	59.9	9.24%	1,806	39.7	728	16.0	192	4.2
Oregon	30,912	868.4		2,086	58.6	6.75%	1,401	39.4	592	16.6	93	2.6
Wisconsin	46,177	843.8		3,187	58.3	6.90%	2,345	42.9	647	11.8	195	3.6
Kansas	24,593	903.0		1,557	57.1	6.33%	1,089	40.0	347	12.7	121	4.4
Pennsylvania	129,769	1,049.4		7,030	56.8	5.42%	5,014	40.5	1,340	10.8	676	5.5
Texas	154,870	700.2		12,313	55.7	7.95%	8,425	38.1	2,363	10.7	1,525	6.9
Nebraska	15,465	889.2		935	53.7	6.05%	696	40.0	176	10.1	63	3.6
Iowa	28,062	953.2		1,566	53.2	5.58%	1,164	39.5	352	12.0	50	1.7
Washington	45,920	748.9		3,261	53.2	7.10%	2,239	36.5	803	13.1	219	3.6
Virginia	58,282	789.1		3,914	53.0	6.72%	2,644	35.8	808	10.9	462	6.3
Indiana	55,968	903.3		3,279	52.9	5.86%	2,196	35.4	736	11.9	347	5.6
Minnesota	37,620	743.6		2,539	50.2	6.75%	1,912	37.8	497	9.8	130	2.6
Delaware	7,070	864.8		406	49.7	5.74%	287	35.1	94	11.5	25	3.1
Michigan	86,728	860.4		5,003	49.6	5.77%	3,324	33.0	1,029	10.2	650	6.4
Rhode Island	10,039	932.8		506	47.0	5.04%	393	36.5	84	7.8	29	2.7
Illinois	105,325	832.4		5,919	46.8	5.62%	3,942	31.2	1,011	8.0	966	7.6
Ohio	109,110	954.1		5,351	46.8	4.90%	3,757	32.9	1,074	9.4	520	4.5
Utah	13,412	570.4		1,096	46.7	8.17%	702	29.9	336	14.3	58	2.5
California	239,371	674.6		16,355	46.1	6.83%	10,471	29.5	3,397	9.6	2,487	7.0
New Hampshire	9,708	753.9		583	45.4	6.01%	405	31.5	158	12.3	20	1.6
Hawaii	8,978	713.9		566	45.0	6.30%	415	33.0	131	10.4	20	1.6
Maryland	44,499	807.8		2,480	45.0	5.57%	1,432	26.0	491	8.9	557	10.1
Connecticut	29,627	850.5		1,491	42.8	5.03%	1,112	31.9	272	7.8	107	3.1
New Jersey	73,689	853.0		3,382	39.1	4.59%	2,371	27.4	588	6.8	423	4.9
New York	155,877	812.3		6,840	35.6	4.39%	4,708	24.5	1,169	6.1	963	5.0
Massachusetts	56,291	875.0		1,994	31.0	3.54%	1,421	22.1	433	6.7	140	2.2
Maine	12,540	960.4			*		516	39.5	137	10.5	17	*
North Dakota	6,090	960.8			*		282	44.5	81	12.8	12	*
South Dakota	7,132	933.1			*		406	53.1	102	13.3	16	*
Vermont	5,120	827.0			*		235	38.0	83	13.4	12	*
Wyoming	4,172	832.3			*		273	54.5	109	21.7	16	*
"rate" is calculated as number per 100,000 population.
source:  U.S. CDC, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr54/nvsr54_13.pdf
Copyright © 2006 by Stuart Eugene Thiel.  All Rights Reserved.