| Final Prognostication Results: Pollkatz Method Vindicated!! | |||||||
| November 1 state vote projections by three pollsters, electoral-vote.com, and pollkatz.com. Of the five, Professor Pollkatz called about half more accurately than any of the others. Usually there was only one other (e-v.com), but Pollkatz dominated in the swing states. | |||||||
| poll date | EV | e-v.com final | arg | survey usa | zogby | pollkatz final | from actual vote count (Kerry/(Bush+Kerry)), per NYT 5 Nov |
| DC | 3 | 87.640% | 90.472% | 90.632% | |||
| MA | 12 | 58.140% | 64.547% | 62.701% | |||
| RI | 4 | 56.842% | 65.459% | 60.482% | |||
| VT | 3 | 56.989% | 55.994% | 60.336% | |||
| NY | 31 | 59.375% | 62.928% | 58.793% | |||
| MD | 10 | 55.670% | 58.464% | 56.249% | |||
| CT | 7 | 55.319% | 58.571% | 55.237% | |||
| CA | 55 | 55.670% | 56.591% | 55.206% | |||
| IL | 21 | 55.208% | 56.508% | 54.993% | |||
| ME | 4 | 54.167% | 53.039% | 54.479% | |||
| HI | 4 | 49.451% | 59.546% | 54.373% | |||
| DE | 3 | 54.217% | 56.625% | 53.817% | |||
| WA | 11 | 52.577% | 53.852% | 53.598% | |||
| NJ | 15 | 50.000% | 57.393% | 53.127% | |||
| OR | 7 | 53.191% | 51.460% | 51.969% | |||
| MN | 10 | 53.125% | 53.125% | 51.870% | 51.764% | ||
| MI | 17 | 53.061% | 53.061% | 52.766% | 51.734% | ||
| PA | 21 | 50.515% | 50.515% | 52.083% | 52.824% | 51.130% | |
| NH | 4 | 50.515% | 49.485% | 49.461% | 50.684% | ||
| WI | 10 | 48.387% | 50.274% | 50.199% | |||
| IA | 7 | 51.546% | 51.546% | 52.632% | 50.593% | 49.544% | |
| NM | 5 | 51.515% | 51.515% | 51.109% | 49.416% | ||
| OH | 20 | 48.454% | 46.739% | 48.454% | 48.749% | ||
| NV | 5 | 45.918% | 45.918% | 47.368% | 48.781% | 48.666% | |
| FL | 27 | 52.688% | 51.020% | 50.000% | 49.961% | 47.469% | |
| CO | 9 | 48.454% | 48.454% | 48.958% | 46.484% | 47.349% | |
| MO | 11 | 47.475% | 49.606% | 46.327% | |||
| VA | 13 | 47.959% | 45.974% | 45.649% | |||
| AR | 6 | 47.423% | 49.646% | 45.027% | |||
| AZ | 10 | 42.268% | 46.843% | 44.740% | |||
| NC | 15 | 45.918% | 44.548% | 43.715% | |||
| WV | 5 | 45.745% | 48.732% | 43.477% | |||
| TN | 11 | 40.816% | 48.950% | 42.780% | |||
| LA | 9 | 35.556% | 46.834% | 42.626% | |||
| GA | 15 | 42.708% | 45.303% | 41.582% | |||
| SC | 8 | 44.330% | 42.339% | 41.305% | |||
| KY | 8 | 39.175% | 44.207% | 39.994% | |||
| MS | 6 | 45.161% | 41.827% | 39.906% | |||
| MT | 3 | 38.710% | 39.591% | 39.505% | |||
| IN | 11 | 40.206% | 42.222% | 39.456% | |||
| SD | 3 | 37.500% | 40.082% | 39.088% | |||
| TX | 34 | 38.542% | 40.709% | 38.490% | |||
| AL | 9 | 40.625% | 43.102% | 37.078% | |||
| KS | 6 | 38.144% | 40.091% | 36.970% | |||
| AK | 3 | 34.483% | 34.014% | 36.170% | |||
| ND | 3 | 38.889% | 36.084% | 36.086% | |||
| OK | 7 | 34.694% | 39.342% | 34.438% | |||
| NE | 5 | 34.409% | 35.075% | 32.533% | |||
| ID | 4 | 33.708% | 31.358% | 30.707% | |||
| WY | 3 | 30.851% | 32.634% | 29.704% | |||
| UT | 5 | 25.806% | 28.873% | 27.061% | |||
| Vote percentages calculated as Kerry/(Bush + Kerry). ARG, Survey USA and Zogby percentages are results published 1 November by those pollsters. Results labelled "e-v.com" are those calculated directly from poll data posted at www.electoral-vote.com, which are the latest available poll results in each state. Those labelled "pollkatz" are estimates using the historical-correlation-based method of www.pollkatz.com, based on the same data as electoral-vote.com except that polls more than five days old are discarded. | |||||||
| Copyright (c) 2004 by Stuart Eugene Thiel. All Rights Reserved. | |||||||